Week 8 Weigh-In

What? How can this be?
I've put weight back on!

Could it be due to the above-average intake of alcohol this week? Has my body adjusted to its new calorie regime, and is fighting back? Or is this just normal process variation at work?

I still don't have enough data points yet to be able to draw any hard and fast conclusions, but I have had a bit of a play with the data I do have, to see if I can make any sense of it.

First off though: the weekly results.


Today, I weigh 74.5kg / 11st 10lb
Last week, I weighed 73.9kg / 11st 9lb

My weight gain this week is 0.6kg / 1.32lb
My BMI has been increased from 26.88 to 27.0

I decided to plot the weight variation, to see if there's a pattern. As I say, there are only eight data points, which is about 22 points short of a statistically useful sample.

This is what it looks like if all the data points are included:

On the face of it, it seems as though all is lost! The trend line clearly shows that I'm going to start gaining weight again, until in about eight weeks I'll weigh the same as I did before I started fasting!

This must be nonsense of course. At least, I bloody hope it is!

Looking at the data, it seems to me that the first and last data points (representing a 1.6kg weight loss and a 0.6kg weight gain respectively) are unusual; let's assume that they're outliers, so we can exclude them from the analysis.

The trend line looks quite different now:

I prefer this one! It shows a trend of increasing weight loss. However, I must stress that there aren't enough data points to draw any firm conclusions at this stage.

I think from now on, each week, I'll keep track of overall weight, BMI, and weight variation.